Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Random Talks about Inflation

I am not an Economist and really know nuts about the subject. But I am getting worried about what I "think" will happen in Singapore. Recently a Minister said that increase in CPI does not mean increase costs of living. Singapore's inflation has always been rather low. Due to cheap products in China, we have been all rather lucky. Considering how commodity prices were hitting 11 year high (wheat) just a month back, food prices are probably set to increase with poultry farmers eventually passing the costs to consumers. But surely far greater evils lie ahead of us. There is no way the Yuan can continue to be valued at such a cheap rate with a surplus worth 27 billion USD. How much is that in RMB?? Before long, cheap products in China will become less cheap as the currency appreciates. All that is fine if the Singapore economy keeps expanding. As I understand it, the phenomena where the economy slows down as prices go up is one that is rare - but very painful for a large number of people. This means loss of jobs and cuts in wages as inflation increase. Stock exchange losses translate to cheaper houses and cheaper cars. In such a scenario, according to my limited understanding, the cash rich will be very happy and the poor very very unhappy. So I hope our multi-million dollar Ministers can solve the problem (if it exists).

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